Oklahoma State
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
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RankNameGradeRating
20  Thomas Farrell SR 31:15
25  Shadrack Kipchirchir SR 31:18
41  Kirubel Erassa JR 31:28
76  Craig Nowak SO 31:44
121  Brian Gohlke SO 31:56
140  Chad Noelle SO 32:01
197  Shane Moskowitz JR 32:12
204  Taylor Monaghan SR 32:13
237  Joseph Manilafasha SR 32:20
310  Neal Smith JR 32:34
337  Kevin Colon JR 32:39
411  Tommy Casey SO 32:48
446  Justin Vilhauer SO 32:53
590  Matthew Fayers 33:09
829  Nick Thorp JR 33:35
1,103  Brigham Hedges 33:59
1,169  Luis Martinez 34:05
2,213  Alexander Johansson FR 35:45
2,985  Noah Gade 38:40
National Rank #3 of 311
Midwest Region Rank #1 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.9%
Most Likely Finish 2nd at Nationals


National Champion 12.4%
Top 5 at Nationals 68.9%
Top 10 at Nationals 91.2%
Top 20 at Nationals 99.2%


Regional Champion 91.2%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Thomas Farrell Shadrack Kipchirchir Kirubel Erassa Craig Nowak Brian Gohlke Chad Noelle Shane Moskowitz Taylor Monaghan Joseph Manilafasha Neal Smith Kevin Colon
Cowboy Jamboree 09/28 386 31:36 31:26 31:25 32:10 32:11 31:50 32:26 32:20
Chile Pepper Festival 10/05
Pre-National Invitational (Blue) 10/19 597 31:33 31:57 32:14 32:10 32:24 32:55
Big 12 Championships 11/02 278 31:14 30:56 30:56 32:01 31:53 32:06 31:53 32:11 33:08 32:55
Midwest Region Championships 11/15 500 31:51 31:51 31:56 31:51 32:34 32:19 31:57
NCAA Championship 11/23 278 30:55 31:10 31:43 31:32 31:48 32:16 33:03





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.9% 4.9 226 12.4 16.7 16.7 13.2 9.8 7.5 5.2 4.0 3.2 2.4 2.0 1.4 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 1.1 38 91.2 7.6 1.1 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Thomas Farrell 100% 24.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.6 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.4 1.9
Shadrack Kipchirchir 100.0% 27.6 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.8 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.2 1.8 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.1
Kirubel Erassa 99.9% 41.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8
Craig Nowak 99.9% 74.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5
Brian Gohlke 99.9% 104.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chad Noelle 99.9% 118.9
Shane Moskowitz 99.9% 144.6


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Thomas Farrell 2.3 24.0 20.9 14.7 10.5 6.8 5.4 3.8 2.8 1.7 1.7 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1
Shadrack Kipchirchir 2.8 17.6 19.7 16.0 11.2 8.1 6.2 4.1 3.1 2.4 2.2 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Kirubel Erassa 4.6 4.2 11.7 14.5 13.2 11.3 9.1 6.7 5.2 3.8 3.1 2.6 1.7 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4
Craig Nowak 8.8 0.1 0.6 2.9 6.0 9.0 10.2 8.4 7.5 7.1 4.8 4.7 3.7 3.6 3.1 2.7 2.8 2.2 1.8 2.1 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1
Brian Gohlke 14.1 0.1 0.9 1.7 3.1 5.1 6.2 5.9 5.9 5.4 5.7 4.8 4.6 4.0 4.1 3.7 3.3 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.9
Chad Noelle 16.9 0.3 0.6 1.6 3.2 3.8 5.0 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.6 3.9 4.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.7 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.2 2.1
Shane Moskowitz 22.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.9 4.0 2.8 3.6 3.8 4.7 4.0 3.8 4.0 3.7 3.8 3.8 2.4 3.5




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 91.2% 100.0% 91.2 91.2 1
2 7.6% 100.0% 7.6 7.6 2
3 1.1% 89.5% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0 3
4 0.1% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4
5 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 99.9% 91.2 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 98.8 1.1




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Northern Arizona 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Texas 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 99.5% 1.0 1.0
Iowa State 36.4% 1.0 0.4
Oklahoma 4.4% 1.0 0.0
Kansas 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 3.4
Minimum 2.0
Maximum 5.0